SPS Blue Nile

Projekt leader (PI): Prof. Dr. Harald Kunstmann

Co-PIs: Dr. Christof Lorenz
Project coordinator: Windmanagda Sawadogo

Projektduration: 36 Months

Funding organization: Projektträger Karlsruhe (PTKA) und das Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)

Brief project description: The aim is to develop a hydrological forecasting system for the transboundary water management of the management of the Blue Nile, using a “seamless” approach with forecast horizons ranging from with forecast horizons ranging from days to several months (seamless prediction). Here, the forecast variables that are decisive for regional water management, such as precipitation, reservoir inflow, sediment input and transport through to the potential agricultural agricultural yield in order to enable a comprehensive assessment and the derivation of recommendations for action within the framework of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus for the Blue Nile reservoirs and in particular the reservoir of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). A particular focus of the ensemble-based and thus probabilistic forecast is on the warning of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heavy rainfall and floods floods (forecast horizon of several days) through to periods of drought and heat (forecast horizon of several days). For the practical transfer, the developed approaches are developed approaches are transferred into cloud-ready modules or microservices, which enables implementation adapted to local conditions, e.g. the pure hydrometeorological forecast or visualization module. The development and implementation of the forecasting system are carried out in close cooperation with Sudanese and Ethiopian partners from the scientific scientific, political and water management sectors.