MitRiskFlood

• Funding organization: BMBF
• PI/Contact: Patrick Laux
• Duration: 2021-2025

Floods caused by torrential rainstorms, tropical cyclones and storm surges have been the most expensive and devastating natural hazards in both the Southeast and South coastal regions of China, especially in the urban areas such as Shanghai and Shenzhen. Climate change is expected to cause significant increases in the frequency and intensity of these natural hazards in the future. Often, extreme climate-related events such as cyclones, rainstorms, high tides etc. occur jointly, leading to so-called compound flood events with significantly higher hazards compared to the sum of the single extreme events. To effectively mitigate the potential devastating consequences of compound events will not only save human lives but also contribute to sustainable development and social stability in China.

The Sino-German project MitRiskFlood will develop resilient adaptation measures to address future increasing flood risk under climate change and rapid socioeconomic development in two selected coastal megacities in the region, i.e. Shenzhen and Shanghai. We will quantify the risks of compound flooding in the future based on the latest developments in climate, hydraulic, and socio-economy modelling. More specifically, we will base our research on a quantitative assessment of deep uncertainties imposed by climate change and -variability, and assess losses caused by compound extreme events. We will then evaluate different mitigation and adaptation strategies in both megacities and analyse the sustainable solutions until the end of the 21st century based on the enhanced Robust Decision Making (RDM) method. Together with German and EU stakeholders, the transferability of the developed framework will be evaluated for other coastal metropolises during project workshops in China and Germany.